A year ago, I published a series of 10 predictions regarding how the Cloud Computing marketplace would evolve in 2011 in E-Commerce Times. Here’s a recap and assessment of my predictions:

1. The Cloud Computing market will grow more rapidly than analyst firms forecast as organizations move from asking “what is Cloud and why is it important” to “where and how can I capitalize on the Cloud today.”
   • I think I did ok on this one, although there remain plenty of organizations who are still trying to define the Cloud and determine why they should seriously consider employing it.
2. This accelerated growth will occur despite a major cloud computing service disruptions and/or significant security infractions, which will heighten customer concerns but won’t discourage wider adoption.
   • This certainly was the case as we watched Amazon’s Web Services (AWS) crash, jeopardizing numerous start-ups and other companies dependent on its Cloud capabilities, yet failing to dissuade more businesses of all sizes to adopt AWS and other Cloud services.
3. A wider array of appliances and applets will be offered by a growing number of Cloud vendors, which will permit users to “download” the functionality they need so they can work offline or deploy cloud-based solutions behind the firewall to satisfy their reliability and security concerns.
   • This wasn’t as prominent a trend as I expected. However, salesforce.com did acquire Navajo Systems, an Israeli-based startup with unique encryption capabilities that are the basis of salesforce.com’s new Data Residency Option (DRO) that permits users to retain control of their data behind their firewall, which could exponentially expand the addressable market for Cloud vendors.
4. Community clouds aimed at specific vertical markets and supply chain relationships will become more prevalent, as various organizations recognize the value of sharing cloud resources and services with their peers.
   • Although the number of community clouds grew in 2011, they didn’t proliferate as much as I expected as most organizations focused their attention on more binary public vs. private cloud alternatives. 
5. Corporate decision-makers will shift their focus from reliability, security and integration concerns to strategic and tactical governance issues, ranging from planning, selection, deployment, monitoring and evaluation to optimization and monetization of cloud initiatives.
   • This trend was more subtle because most corporate decision-makers continue to have serious reliability, security and integration concerns about the cloud, but are also developing corporate policies and procedures to govern their planning, selection, deployment, monitoring and evaluation processes.
6. The rate of cloud company failures and M&A activities will escalate as many startups are unable to keep pace with rising customer expectations and intensifying competitive pressures, and established players attempt to accelerate their development efforts via acquisitions.
   • The magnitude of the Cloud movement permitted the vast majority of startups and established players to prosper. M&A activity has escalated as the year has gone along, capped off with SAP’s acquisition of SuccessFactors, Oracle’s purchase of RightNow and salesforce.com’s recent Rypple buy.
7. Vendors that provide cloud integration tools and professional services, in particular, will be key acquisition targets because they represent a critical component in pulling the various cloud piece-parts together. The acquisitions of Cast Iron Systems and Boomi are just the beginning on the tools side. Consolidation among cloud integration service firms will occur in the coming year.
   • A series of acquisitions by Appirio were the clearest example of this trend on the professional services side of the integration world. But, the number of Cloud integration and consulting companies continues to increase in response to growing demand. The lack of integration tool vendor acquisitions was a bit of a surprise.
8. Social networking will become a required component of enterprise applications, driven by the success of Salesforce.com’s Chatter. By offering Chatter free to a broader population of end-users within its existing accounts, Salesforce.com is not only raising the bar for its direct competitors, but also expanding and redefining its role within the enterprise.
   • Salesforce.com’s intensive marketing campaign promoting the virtues of the ‘Social Enterprise’ have brought broader attention to this idea. It has not only forced other Cloud vendors and established players to promote their social networking capabilities, it helped fuel Jive’s IPO.
9. Datamarts will become a cornerstone of a new generation of cloud-based Data-as-a-Service (DaaS) and Business Process as a Service (BPaaS) solutions, as well as industry benchmark services.
   • Salesforce.com rebranded Jigsaw as Data.com and unveiled Database.com, but examples of BPaaS didn’t get as much attention because they are taking shape within specific vertical markets.
10. New channel programs will be introduced, new channel partners will emerge and new revenue streams will be established. Ironically, the leading cloud vendors — such as Amazon, Google and Salesforce.com — will continue to have the toughest time building successful channel programs because of their direct sales heritage.
    • The success of THINKstrategies’ first Cloud Channel Summit is an indication of the level of interest in building successful partnerships in the Cloud. Although, channel executives from Amazon, Google and Salesforce.com were prominent speakers at this event who have made significant progress with their channel development programs, they all readily admit they are still searching for the right formula for success.

Amazon Web Services Google Navajo Systems Oracle RightNow Rypple Salesforce.com SAP SuccessFactors