Once again Gartner has demonstrated why it is viewed as a lagging indicator of meaningful market trends. Check out a new article in CIO Magazine entitled, “Gartner: Four Disruptions That Will Transform the Software Industry.”

In this article, Gartner analyst Yvonne Genovese identifies the following “disruptive” software industry trends that will take shape by 2010-2015,

• Rise in New Technologies and Convergence of Existing Technologies
• Change in Software User and Support Demographics
• Revolutionary Changes in Software and How it is Consumed
• Software Market Moves to Megavendors Supporting Large Ecosystems

To call any of these trends potentially disruptive in 2010 or 2015 is to ignore the significant impact each of them is already having on the software industry today.

Web mash-ups became the play things of the Facebook crowd over a year ago and are already being used by a wide array of companies of all sizes today.

That same Facebook generation has already brought their social networks into the corporate environment, making Gartner’s suggestion that “By 2015, no company will be able to build or sustain a competitive advantage unless it capitalizes on the combined power of individualized behaviors, social dynamics and collaboration”, ludicrous.

“Revolutionary Changes in Software and How it is Consumed” are already well underway and will be yesterday’s news by 2010. Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) and cloud computing are gaining mainstream and Main Street acceptance and adoption.

Gartner may be right that the “Software Market Moves to Megavendors Supporting Large Ecosystems” but it won’t be yesterday’s leading vendors. Instead, it will be Google, Amazon and Salesforce.com leading a new generation of SaaS and cloud computing providers.

Gartner’s forecast would be laughable if it wasn’t so sad how many companies spend millions of dollars to obtain this type of ‘insight’.

This is especially disappointing at a time when most companies are in desperate need of practical help and advice to overcome the unprecedented realities of today’s turbulent business climate, as opposed to the hypothetical world of the future as seen by a market research firm.